Colombian health officials declared on Monday that the worst
of a Zika outbreak in the Andean nation had passed just 10 months after its
arrival, raising questions about how the virus is affecting parts of Latin
America differently. Vice Health Minister Fernando Ruiz told journalists that the
number of infections in Colombia has been falling by 600 cases a week. While
Zika is still circulating in the country, Colombia considers the drop-off
sufficient to say it has moved into an endemic phase from the epidemic phase.
"We can declare that the epidemic is ended. Colombia is
the first country on the American continent to declare an end to the
epidemic," Ruiz said. Zika has struck hardest in Brazil, where the outbreak was
first detected last year, and has since spread rapidly through the Americas.
The disease can cause the devastating birth defect
microcephaly, a condition defined by abnormally small head size which can lead
to severe developmental problems in infants, as well as other neurological
problems. Brazil has reported more than 1,600 cases of microcephaly linked to
Zika, a spike not replicated elsewhere to date.
Colombia's Zika outbreak has been closely monitored by
infectious disease experts to understand whether the virus will affect other
countries in a similar manner to Brazil. Colombia has reported nearly 100,000
cases of infection, with 21 cases of Zika-related microcephaly.
Some disease experts say they are reluctant to say the worst
of the outbreak has passed in Colombia, particularly with mosquito season due
to resume in the country within a few months, and the many unknowns surrounding
the first mosquito-borne virus that can also be transmitted through sexual
contact.
"It's difficult to make predictive statements on an
epidemic when the vast majority of cases go unreported," said Dr. Peter
Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of
Medicine in Texas. About 80 percent of Zika infections are believed to be
asymptomatic.
"There is a possibility that it has not taken hold in
Colombia as it has in Brazil and Puerto Rico, but we're not going to know the
full impact of this epidemic for several more months until we see whether
additional waves of microcephaly cases are born," Hotez said.
British scientists predicted earlier this month that it will
take two to three years for the current Zika outbreak to come to an end in Latin
America, assuming that enough people have been infected and become immune to
the virus.
Colombia's Health Ministry has also lifted its
recommendation that women delay pregnancy because of the virus, Ruiz said,
though there may be new outbreaks of the disease in future.
Colombia expects that there will be an uptick of cases of
microcephaly in September and October, Ruiz said, when pregnant women infected
during the peak of the epidemic will give birth.
The World Health Organization has said there is strong
scientific consensus that Zika can also cause Guillain-Barre, a rare
neurological syndrome that causes temporary paralysis in adults. Colombia has
reported 350 cases of the condition connected to Zika.
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